Vienna Institute: Serbia’s GDP Growth at Zero if War in Ukraine Lasts Throughout 2022

Serbia will have an inflation of 14%, and the economic growth will be at zero if the war in Ukraine does not end soon and extends until the end of the year instead, stated the economist for the Balkans countries at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Branimir Jovanovic.

In an interview for Beta, he said that the Institute had two scenarios for Serbia – if the war ends soon, the economic growth will be 3.6%, and the inflation 10%, whereas the pessimistic scenario is if the war in Ukraine lasts until the end of the year or beyond.

– Within the pessimistic scenario, we have projected that the inflation in Serbia will be 14% for the whole year, whereas the economic growth will be at zero, that is, there will be no economic growth, which is an economic stagnation combined with a double-digit inflation – Jovanovic said.

He added that the scenario of the economic trends in Serbia if the war in Ukraine extends to the next year has not been considered in detail, but in that case as well, the growth of the GDP and the inflation would probably be similar to the projections within the pessimistic scenario for 2022.

Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies

Branimir Jovanović

economic growth

inflation rate

war in Ukraine